Weekly Market Analysis | Howard Capital Management

Tailored Investment Solutions from Howard Capital Management and J. Martin Wealth

Located in Roswell, Georgia, Howard Capital Management (HCM) is an SEC-Registered Investment Advisor Firm. They aim to deliver professional money management solutions to individuals seeking growth while maintaining a prudent investment approach. The firm offers the use of the HCM-BuyLine®, developed by Vance Howard, CEO and Portfolio Manager at Howard Capital Management Inc., which has been their cornerstone since 1996. This stop-loss safeguard is crafted to provide timely guidance during market volatility. The HCM-BuyLine® effectively reduces downside risk by moving from equities to cash and cash equivalents while actively identifying opportunities to boost equity exposure during a market upswing.

J. Martin Wealth, based in Arizona, provides fiduciary financial advice tailored to help you meet your financial goals. Led by Jeff Martin, our team focuses on personalized investment strategies that align with your risk tolerance, time horizon, and unique objectives. Whether planning for retirement, managing your investments, or seeking comprehensive financial guidance, we are here to provide solutions that put your best interests first. Serving clients in Gilbert, Chandler, Maricopa, and throughout Arizona, we are committed to delivering transparent, client-centered service.

At J. Martin Wealth Management, serving retirees across Gilbert, Chandler, Gold Canyon and Maricopa, we share these weekly insights to help you understand market movements and how they may impact your retirement plan.

Superstition Mountains with Global Weekly Summary Title

Howard Capital - Global Weekly Summary

Equities Retreat as AI Capex Concerns and Fed Leadership Shift Take Center Stage

February 6, 2026

  • Posted By: Editorial Team

Weekly Market Movers — Key Highlights

  • Global equities pulled back as technology stocks weighed on major indices, while
  • The dollar strengthened on solid U.S. data.
  • Silver outperformed gold following a sharp earlier decline.
  • President Donald Trump signed a $1.2 trillion government funding bill to end the partial government shutdown
  • The ECB and BoE held rates steady at 2% and 3.75%, respectively.
  • Amazon and Alphabet shares slid after projecting increased capex in 2026.
  • Technology stocks were weighed down by the release of Anthropic’s AI tool.

Global equities detracted with technology names driving a broad pullback across major U.S. benchmarks. The dollar strengthened following fresh U.S. economic data, while in precious metals, silver outperformed gold as it rebounded from its recent sharp decline. President Donald Trump signed a $1.2 trillion government funding bill to formally end the partial government shutdown and reopen federal agencies. Kevin Warsh’s nomination to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair impacted investor sentiments. The release of Anthropic’s AI assistant and projections of increased capital expenditures on AI infrastructure has weighed on technology stocks. In global geopolitics, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio engaged in talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Muscat. The US demanded a total freeze on uranium enrichment, while Iran insisted on the removal of American military assets from the region.

Global Updates

  • The MSCI All Country World Index declined as investors pulled back from technology stocks and re‑evaluated company valuations after several years of strong growth.
  • The European Central Bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2% on Thursday, while the Bank of England also held steady, maintaining its policy rate at 3.75%.
  • Rheinmetall shares fell after the company signaled weaker‑than‑expected preliminary guidance for 2026 during a call with investors and analysts.
  • Volvo shares plummeted after fourth‑quarter operating income plunged 68% to about $200 million, dragged down by tariffs, weak demand, and currency headwinds.
  • Shell shares slipped after fourth‑quarter adjusted earnings came in at $3.26 billion, missing the $3.53 billion analyst forecast amid weaker crude prices.
  • Toyota appointed its CFO Kenta Kon — a close ally of Chairman Akio Toyoda — as its next CEO, as the automaker faces intensifying competition from rapidly advancing Chinese rivals.
  • German exports rose 4% in December from the prior month, outperforming expectations for a 1% increase.
  • British house prices rose 0.7% in January, signaling a housing‑market rebound after December’s 0.5% decline and November’s budget measures.
  • A subsidiary of Chinese lithium-ion battery maker Sunwoda Electronic subsidiary has reached a settlement with Geely’s battery unit Vremt, which had sued over defective battery cells.
  • Chinese automaker Seres that its Aito EV brand has signed a strategic partnership with Abu Dhabi‑based Performance Plus Motors to support its expansion into the Middle East.

U.S. Equity

  • U.S. equity markets declined the week, indicated by the fall in the broader market indices. The S&P, Nasdaq and the blue-chip Dow Jones index declined over the week due to a mix of disappointing big tech corporate earnings, projections of large capital expenditures in 2026, Anthropic’s AI tool, and market reactions to U.S. politics and macroeconomic indicators.
  • President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair. Markets reacted adversely to Warsh’s hawkish stance which weighed on equity markets while strengthening the US Dollar and Treasury yields.
  • The Challenger, Gray & Christmas jobless claims data, rose to an larger-than-expected 231,000 for the week ending January 31. The 108,000 layoffs in January also lowered investor sentiment. The Bureau of Labor Statistics rescheduled the release of the US jobs report to 11th February due to the government shutdown. The U.S. job openings are estimated to have declined to 6.54 million in December, the loss in five years.
  • Investors’ concerns of increased capital expenditure by Alphabet in the $175 billion to $185 billion range on AI in 2026 (nearly double the capex in 2025), led to a decline in the company’s stock price. Alphabet posted a higher-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue of $113.83 billion driven by strong revenue from its cloud division ($17.66 billion) and youtube advertising ($11.38 billion).
  • Qualcomm reported a 5% annual growth in its fiscal first-quarter sales revenue to $12.25 billion, with an adjusted EPS of $3.50. However, the projected lower-than-expected sales revenue of $10.2 billion to $11 billion in the second quarter, with an adjusted EPS in the $2.45 to $2.65 range disappointed investors.
  • Amazon posted a lower-than-expected EPS of $1.95 in the fourth quarter on revenue of $213.39 billion, driven by a strong 24% growth in its Amazon Web Services revenue to $35.58 billion and advertising revenue of $21.32 billion. Stock price declined due to weak earnings and a projected capital expenditure of $200 billion in 2026 on AI infrastructure.
  • The release of Anthropic’s AI tool to manage complex workflows in legal research and analytics, led to a selloff in technology stocks this week including Thomson Reuters, Salesforce, LegalZoom, etc.
  • Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration is considering the construction of affordable housing, under a plan pitched by Lennar and Taylor Morrison Home Corp.
  • Eli Lilly stock price rose after posting profit per share of $7.54 on a revenue of $19.3 billion. Eli also projected 25% higher revenue in 2026 and a profit per share in the $33.50 – $35 range.

Fixed Income

  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index edged up over the week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged lower to 4.21% and the yield on the 2-year note declined to 3.483% over the week.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index rose slightly to 97.84 over the week, primarily due to a risk of rotation into safe-haven assets and the nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair along with a depreciation of the Japanese Yen.

Wealth Watch: From the desk of Vance Howard

Red Charts, Green Light: What the HCM-BuyLine® Says

Posted By: Vance Howard - February 6, 2026

SPY S&P 500 ETF Chart February 6 2026

The market has weakened and so has the HCM-BuyLine®, but it is still positive and as we always say, when the HCM-BuyLine® is positive all pullbacks should be considered buyable. The S&P 500 has dropped by about 4% over the last week and a half, and the NASDAQ 100 is off by about 8%, which is a pretty big drop in a short period of time. The markets are oversold and should start to stabilize. VIX, the volatility index, is also oversold, which generally has a high percentage of calling an oversold market. But with that said, there has been some damage done to the uptrend and we will watch with caution.

VIX Volatility Index Chart February 6 2026

Bitcoin is down about 40% in ten trading days. I’m not sure if Bitcoin is an investment or a trading vehicle but there is a lot of price action in Bitcoin. Bitcoin has some nasty drops just about every year, so this drop is not uncommon.

GLD SPDR Gold Shares Chart February 6 2026

Like I wrote a few weeks back, hopefully you tightened your stops on gold, as it had gone way up way too fast to be sustainable. The big drop in gold is one of the reasons for the selloff in stocks.

Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 9,000 last week to a lower-than-expected 198,000. This was the eighth decline in the past ten weeks, pushing initial claims near the lows of this cycle. The trend is consistent with subdued layoffs and still-robust labor demand, which is supporting a continued economic expansion.

Continuing claims in the previous week declined 17,000 to 1.884 million, while the insured jobless rate was unchanged at 1.2%. Both indicators are low by historical norms and suggest that long-term unemployment is not an issue for the economy.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI jumped 4.7 points in January, the most since June 2020, to an above-consensus 52.6. This was the highest level since August 2022 and in expansion territory for the first time in a year. In data since 1971, the monthly change was a 2.1 standard deviation event, making it a relatively rare occurrence. Previous large increases have typically happened early in economic recoveries, suggesting that a stronger manufacturing sector could lead to faster economic growth this time, too.

The HCM-BuyLine® Explained

Curious how the HCM-BuyLine® works—and whether it fits your investment strategy?

The HCM-BuyLine® is a proprietary, rules-based investment tool designed to help manage portfolio risk by using market momentum indicators. Instead of relying on emotional decision-making, the BuyLine® uses quantitative data to signal when to reduce equity exposure and when to re-enter the market. This can help protect capital during major downturns and participate in uptrends when conditions improve.

For investors seeking an alternative to traditional buy-and-hold strategies, the HCM-BuyLine® offers a more dynamic, tactical investment approach. Its methodology may be especially valuable during periods of volatility or economic uncertainty.

Have you seen this kind of strategy from your current financial advisor? Are you looking for an investment philosophy that adapts to changing market conditions?

At J. Martin Wealth, we believe in aligning your financial plan with tools that are built to adapt. The HCM-BuyLine® is one example of how data-driven investing can support long-term goals while managing downside risk.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the HCM-BuyLine and how does it work?

A: The HCM-BuyLine® is a systematic, rules-based investment indicator developed by Vance Howard at Howard Capital Management. It uses quantitative market data to signal when to reduce equity exposure during downturns and when to increase exposure during uptrends. Rather than relying on emotion or guesswork, the BuyLine® follows predetermined criteria to help manage portfolio risk. Think of it as a disciplined framework for deciding when to be more defensive (holding cash) or more aggressive (holding stocks) based on current market conditions. It's designed to help protect capital during major market declines while participating in growth when conditions improve.

Q: Is tactical investing right for retirees?

A: Tactical investing strategies can be suitable for certain retirees, particularly those concerned about sequence-of-risk—the danger of large losses early in retirement. For retirees who are drawing income from their portfolio, avoiding major market downturns can be especially valuable since you don't have decades to recover. However, tactical strategies are not right for everyone. They involve more active management than traditional buy-and-hold approaches, and past performance does not guarantee future results. The best fit depends on your individual risk tolerance, time horizon, income needs, and overall financial plan. We recommend discussing tactical strategies with a fiduciary advisor who can evaluate whether they align with your specific retirement goals.

Q: How is this different from what most financial advisors in Chandler or Gilbert offer?

A: Most traditional financial advisors in the East Valley use a buy-and-hold approach with periodic rebalancing—meaning your portfolio stays invested in stocks and bonds regardless of market conditions. The HCM-BuyLine® approach is tactical, meaning it attempts to reduce equity exposure during unfavorable market conditions and increase exposure when conditions improve. This doesn't make one approach "better" than the other—they serve different objectives. Buy-and-hold is simpler and works well over very long time horizons. Tactical strategies like HCM aim to reduce volatility and manage downside risk, which can be especially important for retirees who can't afford to wait years for a portfolio to recover. At J. Martin Wealth Management, we believe in matching the strategy to the client, not forcing every client into the same approach.

Q: Does the HCM-BuyLine® guarantee that I won't lose money in a downturn?

A: No. The HCM-BuyLine® is an investment tool designed to help manage risk, but it does not eliminate risk or guarantee results. All investing involves the potential for loss, including loss of principal. Tactical strategies attempt to reduce exposure during declines, but market conditions can change rapidly, and there may be delays in executing portfolio adjustments. Additionally, moving to cash during downturns means you might miss some recovery gains if the market rebounds quickly. There are trade-offs with any investment approach. The HCM-BuyLine® has been used since 1996, but past performance is not indicative of future results. It's a tool, not a guarantee, and should be evaluated as part of a comprehensive financial plan.

Q: Can I invest with Howard Capital Management directly, or do I need to work through J. Martin Wealth Management?

A: Howard Capital Management is an institutional investment manager based in Roswell, Georgia, and they primarily work with financial advisors rather than directly with individual investors. At J. Martin Wealth Management, we have access to Howard Capital Management strategies as one of several investment approaches we can incorporate into client portfolios. We serve as your fiduciary advisor, building a comprehensive financial plan tailored to your situation, and when appropriate, we may recommend tactical strategies like those offered by Howard Capital Management. Working with us means you get personalized advice, local service in Chandler and Gilbert, and a financial plan that goes beyond just investment management—including retirement income planning, Social Security optimization, tax strategy, and more.

Q: I'm retiring soon in Gilbert—should I be worried about this market volatility?

A: Market volatility in the years immediately before and after retirement is something to take seriously, but worry isn't productive—having a plan is. This period is when you're most vulnerable to sequence-of-returns risk, meaning poor market performance early in retirement can significantly impact your long-term financial security. If you're within 2-3 years of retirement and haven't stress-tested your plan against market downturns, now is the time to do so. Consider questions like: Is your asset allocation appropriate for your timeline? Do you have enough cash reserves to avoid selling stocks in a down market? Are you maximizing Social Security timing? Do you have a tax-efficient withdrawal strategy? These are the conversations we have every day with pre-retirees in Gilbert, Chandler, and across the East Valley. If you'd like a second opinion on your retirement readiness, we offer complimentary consultations to review your situation and discuss whether your current plan accounts for market risk.

Still Have Questions?

Market volatility and investment strategies can be complex. If you'd like to discuss how tactical investing or other risk management approaches might fit into your retirement plan, we're here to help.

Schedule a complimentary consultation with J. Martin Wealth Management:

(480) 630-6177

Serving Chandler, Gilbert, Maricopa, and Gold Canyon.

Disclosure: This FAQ is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The HCM-BuyLine® is a proprietary indicator and does not guarantee investment results. All investing involves risk, including potential loss of principal. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor to discuss your specific situation.

The HCM-BuyLine® is a proprietary indicator and does not guarantee investment results or prevent losses. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal.

Ready to Learn More?

Schedule a complimentary consultation to explore how the HCM-BuyLine® and other tactical strategies may fit into your overall investment plan.

Vance Howard CEO Howard Capital Management

Who is Vance Howard?

Vance Howard embarked on his professional career in the financial industry in 1992, establishing Chartered Financial Services, Inc. He subsequently founded Howard Capital Management, Inc. in 1999, a fee-only Registered Investment Advisor. Mr. Howard brings expertise in the analysis, creation, and execution of diverse trading strategies.

Prior to his focus on financial services, Mr. Howard founded Delta Waste Services in 1988, a waste management company he later sold in 1992. Additionally, he co-published investment-focused newsletters, "The Savvy Investor" and the "SI Intermediate-term Trader", which garnered an international readership across over 25 countries between 1992-1999.

Demonstrating a commitment to community, Vance has served on the Huntsville, Texas city council for four terms, including two terms as mayor pro tem. His civic involvement extends to roles such as Huntsville's City Finance Chairman, Chairman of the Huntsville/Walker County 911 Emergency Service, and board positions on the Houston/Galveston Economic Development Council and the District 910 Legal Grievance Committee. He is a former President and active member of the Huntsville Rotary Club.

Outside of the professional sphere, Vance collaborates with family members in the operation of the Bar C Ranch in Madisonville, Texas, where they specialize in raising registered longhorn cattle. His leisure interests include travel with his wife and children, cycling, kayaking, scuba diving, and hiking.

“We aim to take emotion completely out of the equation. Trading with emotions, in our opinion, ruins long-term returns.”

— VANCE HOWARD, CEO + PORTFOLIO MANAGER

Disclosure:

Howard Capital Management, Inc issues this communication. It is for informational purposes and is not an official confirmation of terms. It is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, nor is it a complete statement of the financial products or markets referred to. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Howard Capital Management, Inc. may maintain long or short positions in the financial instruments referred to and transact as principal or agent. Unless explicitly stated otherwise, this is not a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to buy or sell, and any prices or quotations contained herein are indicative only. To the extent permitted by law, Howard Capital Management, Inc. does not accept any liability arising from using this communication. Howard Capital Management is an SEC-registered investment advisor that only does business where it is properly registered or is otherwise exempt from registration. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor indicates that the advisor has attained a particular skill or ability. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This newsletter is a publication of Howard Capital Management, Inc. It should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed, nor should the newsletter be construed as personalized investment advice. All expressions of opinion reflect the author's judgment as of the publication date and are subject to change. It should not be viewed as legal or tax advice. Always consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your legal or tax situation. There can be no guarantee that the HCM-BuyLine® indicator will perform as anticipated. Stop-loss protection will not necessarily limit your losses to the desired amounts due to the limitations of the HCM-BuyLine®, market conditions, and delays in executing orders. It is not an actual stop-loss order that automatically sells securities in the portfolio at a certain price.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material above has been provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as legal or investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security or strategy. The investment strategy and themes discussed herein may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial situation. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, though its accuracy is not guaranteed, and J. Martin Wealth Management makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information, which should not be used as the basis of any investment decision. Information contained on third-party websites that J. Martin Wealth Management may link to are not reviewed in their entirety for accuracy, and J. Martin Wealth Management assumes no liability for the information contained on these websites. Opinions expressed in this commentary reflect subjective judgments of the author based on conditions at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form or referred to in any other publication without express written permission from J. Martin Wealth Management. For more information about J. Martin Wealth Management, including our Form ADV brochures, please visit https://adviserinfo.sec.gov or contact us at 480-630-6177.