Weekly Market Analysis | Howard Capital Management
Tailored Investment Solutions from Howard Capital Management and J. Martin Wealth
Located in Roswell, Georgia, Howard Capital Management (HCM) is an SEC-Registered Investment Advisor Firm. They aim to deliver professional money management solutions to individuals seeking growth while maintaining a prudent investment approach. The firm offers the use of the HCM-BuyLine®, developed by Vance Howard, CEO and Portfolio Manager at Howard Capital Management Inc., which has been their cornerstone since 1996. This stop-loss safeguard is crafted to provide timely guidance during market volatility. The HCM-BuyLine® effectively reduces downside risk by moving from equities to cash and cash equivalents while actively identifying opportunities to boost equity exposure during a market upswing.
J. Martin Wealth, based in Arizona, provides fiduciary financial advice tailored to help you meet your financial goals. Led by Jeff Martin, our team focuses on personalized investment strategies that align with your risk tolerance, time horizon, and unique objectives. Whether planning for retirement, managing your investments, or seeking comprehensive financial guidance, we are here to provide solutions that put your best interests first. Serving clients in Gilbert, Chandler, Maricopa, and throughout Arizona, we are committed to delivering transparent, client-centered service.
At J. Martin Wealth Management, serving retirees across Gilbert, Chandler, Gold Canyon and Maricopa, we share these weekly insights to help you understand market movements and how they may impact your retirement plan.
Howard Capital - Global Weekly Summary
Energy Shocks and Inflation Keep Investors on Edge
March 20, 2026
Posted By: Editorial Team
Weekly Market Snapshot
Global markets weakened as rising crude prices—driven by intensifying Middle East tensions—reignited inflation concerns and reinforced expectations of a prolonged hawkish stance from major central banks. Energy shocks, mixed macro data, and cautious risk sentiment shaped market performance, while selective corporate updates and policy signals added to an already volatile backdrop.
Weekly Market Movers — Key Highlights
- Surging oil and gas prices pressured equities, and revived inflation worries amid escalating Iran–Israel regional conflict.
- Higher U.S. wholesale inflation, softer Canadian labor market in Canada and hotter Eurozone inflation reinforced policy caution.
- Nvidia gained regulatory approval in China, while Alibaba posted sharply lower earnings.
- Risk-off sentiment persisted on inflation and geopolitical pressures, though select corporate moves—such as Uber’s robotaxi investment—stood out.
Global and U.S. equities declined as surging crude prices—driven by escalating Middle East tensions—revived inflation concerns and reinforced expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed kept interest rates steady and projected a single rate cut in the year. Stock futures edged higher on Friday as easing geopolitical worries lifted sentiment, with markets taking note of more optimistic signals around the Iran conflict and the ‘Triple Witching’ event with $5.7 trillion in options set to expire. Energy prices continued to rise through week due to the tensions in the middle-east and attacks on Qatar’s natural gas infrastructure. Canada’s labor data softened while Eurozone inflation ticked higher, and corporate news was mixed, with Nvidia securing approval to sell AI chips in China and Alibaba reporting sharp earnings drop. Uber’s major robotaxi investment and workforce shifts at HSBC and Meta, also shaped investor sentiment.
In global geopolitics, the joint U.S.–Israeli Operation Epic Fury continued to intensify, marked by ongoing decapitation strikes against Iranian leadership and sustained targeting of critical energy infrastructure. Iran and Israel persisted in launching strikes across each other’s territories, while oil prices continued to climb amid the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s suggested assertion that Iran had lost key nuclear and missile capabilities has raised hopes for an early end to the war. Japan, Canada and European countries, have expressed their willingness to provide logistical and naval support for keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. U.S. mediated Russia‑Ukraine peace talks were paused as Washington redirected its attention toward the Iran conflict. Russia and Ukraine continued to claim frontline gains across multiple regions, even as Ukraine dispatched anti‑drone specialists to Gulf states to help counter Iranian-made Shahed drones. President Trump has postponed his meeting with President Xi Jinping due to the Iran war.
Global Updates
- The MSCI All Country World Index fell over the week, as global stocks were dragged down by rising crude prices due to the continuing conflict in the middle east. Surging crude rekindled inflation worries and investors priced in the Fed’s hawkish stance.
- The European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BOE), Sweden’s Riksbank, and the Swiss National Bank all held their policy rates steady, citing heightened inflation and growth uncertainty. Market expectations now point toward potential rate hikes by both the ECB and BOE later in the year.
- Average hourly earnings in Canada increased by 4.2% to CAD 38.49 in February. The Unemployment rate in Canada rose to 6.7% in February 2026, while the Labor Force Participation rate decreased to 64.9% in February from 65% in January 2026.
- The Eurozone’s annual inflation rate rose to 1.9% in February 2026, while core inflation climbed to 2.4%.
- Nvidia received Beijing’s clearance to sell its H200 AI chips in China.
- Alibaba reported a 66% drop in its net income to 15.6 billion Chinese yuan for the fiscal quarter ended Dec. 31, 2025, due to a 74% drop in its operational income attributed to investments in consumer experiences and technology. The company’s revenue was lower-than-expected at 284.8 billion Chinese yuan for the quarter.
- Iran has continued launching retaliatory strikes on neighboring Gulf countries following the killing of its security chief. Energy facilities in Qatar suffered extensive damage, and Kuwait experienced drone and missile interceptions as well as related disruptions.
- Italian bank UniCredit has submitted a $40 billion takeover proposal for Commerzbank.
- Oil prices rose over the week as attacks by Iran on oil and gas facilities around the Gulf escalated following Israel’s attack of Iran’s South Pars gas field and petrochemical infrastructure in Asaluyeh. European natural gas prices rose by 35% after Iranian and Israeli strikes hit key Middle Eastern gas infrastructure, causing long term damage.
- Gold prices headed for a third consecutive weekly decline, pressured by a firm U.S. dollar and as a hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve dampened hopes for near-term interest rate cuts.
- French Foreign Minister Jean‑Noel Barrot assured a 100% higher humanitarian aid of €17 million to Lebanon to manage the impact of Israel’s military campaign.
U.S. Equity
- US. equity markets remained in a pronounced risk‑off posture for the fourth consecutive week, pressured by renewed inflation concerns, a sharp upswing in oil prices, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Recent disruptions to global oil supply stemming from the escalating conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran have intensified market volatility, particularly as attacks on energy and petrochemical infrastructure continue across the region. Stock futures firmed on Friday as comments from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggested the U.S.–Iran conflict may de‑escalate, after he indicated Israel was helping U.S. efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and asserted that Iran had lost key nuclear and missile capabilities—signals that helped markets recover from Thursday’s earlier declines. Market volatility is anticipated on Friday from the ‘Triple Witching’ event, where approximately $5.7 trillion in options are set to expire.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 0.7% inflation in Producer Price Index (PPI) and 0.5% in core PPI in February, suggesting elevated higher-for-longer inflation pressure on businesses and consumers. Annual PPI inflation was at 3.4%, the highest in a year while core was at 3.9%.
- The Federal Open Market Committee held the benchmark federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% after assessing inflation dynamics, economic growth, energy shocks and labor‑market conditions. Policymakers projected one rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027. While the Fed anticipates higher inflation alongside continued economic expansion, Chair Jerome Powell dismissed characterizations of the U.S. outlook as stagflation.
- Uber announced its plans to invest up to $1.25 billion Rivian and purchase autonomous versions of its electric vehicles to support its plans aimed at deploying up to 50,000 robotaxis across multiple countries by 2031.
- Bloomberg has reported plans by banking giant HSBC to cut its workforce by 20,000 by 2031 and leverage artificial intelligence (AI) to optimize operations and costs.
- Meta stock price rose after Reuters reported that Meta is considering laying off up to 16,000 jobs, 20% of its workforce.
- Micron stock pulled back despite reporting a higher-than-expected adjusted EPS of $12.2 on a 200% higher revenue of $23.9 billion driven by AI demand, in the fiscal second quarter.
- Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has projected over $1 trillion in sales of its Vera Rubin and Blackwell systems in the next two years.
Fixed Income
- The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index edged up over the week.
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.277% and the yield on the 2-year note jumped to 796%, reflecting heightened inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain its policy rate, prompting investors to further scale back exposure to risk assets.
- The U.S. Dollar Index edged lower to 99.43 over the week as the market digested the Fed’s hawkish stance.
HCM-030624-063.GWS
Wealth Watch: From the desk of Vance Howard
Panic is not a Strategy: Why We Aren’t Flinching
Posted By: Vance Howard - March 13, 2026
Emotions are running high and the market has weakened. The HCM-BuyLine® is positive, and if broken we will reduce risk, but we will keep our emotions in check in any case. If the trend does change, we do not think it will take much to turn it back up. Our call on the S&P 500 is still 7700 by year-end.
We believe the dustups in the Middle East should be seen as more of a buying opportunity than as “Oh my goodness, let’s run for the hills!” Some are making comparisons to the Iraq war in 2003, or Russia’s “special military operation” attack on Ukraine in 2022. They suggest that the current war, like those conflicts, could last for years rather than weeks or months. That comparison adds weight to the uncertainty of the moment creating lots of emotions. The mind hates not knowing the outcome. We want immediate satisfaction, especially in this day and age.
However, think back to the Iraq war. Markets moved sharply at times. Oil prices spiked. There were times of deep uncertainty. Yet, over the full span of that conflict, the U.S. economy continued to grow. Businesses continued to operate. Long-term investors who stayed disciplined were not destroyed.
There is another factor in this moment: unpredictability. The Trump administration has shown that tone and policy can change quickly. That back-and-forth can feel unstable. Any good news should send stocks higher and oil lower. Like I wrote last week, we think investors should move your stops up on their oil trade.
We understand that these emotions are less helpful when it comes to our finances. Volatility is uncomfortable. So, we will stick to the system and if we are stopped out, we will have our buy list ready, because it is my opinion that downward pressure will not last long, and the buyers will take back control.
The HCM-BuyLine® Explained
Curious how the HCM-BuyLine® works—and whether it fits your investment strategy?
The HCM-BuyLine® is a proprietary, rules-based investment tool designed to help manage portfolio risk by using market momentum indicators. Instead of relying on emotional decision-making, the BuyLine® uses quantitative data to signal when to reduce equity exposure and when to re-enter the market. This can help protect capital during major downturns and participate in uptrends when conditions improve.
For investors seeking an alternative to traditional buy-and-hold strategies, the HCM-BuyLine® offers a more dynamic, tactical investment approach. Its methodology may be especially valuable during periods of volatility or economic uncertainty.
Have you seen this kind of strategy from your current financial advisor? Are you looking for an investment philosophy that adapts to changing market conditions?
At J. Martin Wealth, we believe in aligning your financial plan with tools that are built to adapt. The HCM-BuyLine® is one example of how data-driven investing can support long-term goals while managing downside risk.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is the HCM-BuyLine and how does it work?
A: The HCM-BuyLine® is a systematic, rules-based investment indicator developed by Vance Howard at Howard Capital Management. It uses quantitative market data to signal when to reduce equity exposure during downturns and when to increase exposure during uptrends. Rather than relying on emotion or guesswork, the BuyLine® follows predetermined criteria to help manage portfolio risk. Think of it as a disciplined framework for deciding when to be more defensive (holding cash) or more aggressive (holding stocks) based on current market conditions. It's designed to help protect capital during major market declines while participating in growth when conditions improve.
Q: Is tactical investing right for retirees?
A: Tactical investing strategies can be suitable for certain retirees, particularly those concerned about sequence-of-risk—the danger of large losses early in retirement. For retirees who are drawing income from their portfolio, avoiding major market downturns can be especially valuable since you don't have decades to recover. However, tactical strategies are not right for everyone. They involve more active management than traditional buy-and-hold approaches, and past performance does not guarantee future results. The best fit depends on your individual risk tolerance, time horizon, income needs, and overall financial plan. We recommend discussing tactical strategies with a fiduciary advisor who can evaluate whether they align with your specific retirement goals.
Q: How is this different from what most financial advisors in Chandler or Gilbert offer?
A: Most traditional financial advisors in the East Valley use a buy-and-hold approach with periodic rebalancing—meaning your portfolio stays invested in stocks and bonds regardless of market conditions. The HCM-BuyLine® approach is tactical, meaning it attempts to reduce equity exposure during unfavorable market conditions and increase exposure when conditions improve. This doesn't make one approach "better" than the other—they serve different objectives. Buy-and-hold is simpler and works well over very long time horizons. Tactical strategies like HCM aim to reduce volatility and manage downside risk, which can be especially important for retirees who can't afford to wait years for a portfolio to recover. At J. Martin Wealth Management, we believe in matching the strategy to the client, not forcing every client into the same approach.
Q: Does the HCM-BuyLine® guarantee that I won't lose money in a downturn?
A: No. The HCM-BuyLine® is an investment tool designed to help manage risk, but it does not eliminate risk or guarantee results. All investing involves the potential for loss, including loss of principal. Tactical strategies attempt to reduce exposure during declines, but market conditions can change rapidly, and there may be delays in executing portfolio adjustments. Additionally, moving to cash during downturns means you might miss some recovery gains if the market rebounds quickly. There are trade-offs with any investment approach. The HCM-BuyLine® has been used since 1996, but past performance is not indicative of future results. It's a tool, not a guarantee, and should be evaluated as part of a comprehensive financial plan.
Q: Can I invest with Howard Capital Management directly, or do I need to work through J. Martin Wealth Management?
A: Howard Capital Management is an institutional investment manager based in Roswell, Georgia, and they primarily work with financial advisors rather than directly with individual investors. At J. Martin Wealth Management, we have access to Howard Capital Management strategies as one of several investment approaches we can incorporate into client portfolios. We serve as your fiduciary advisor, building a comprehensive financial plan tailored to your situation, and when appropriate, we may recommend tactical strategies like those offered by Howard Capital Management. Working with us means you get personalized advice, local service in Chandler and Gilbert, and a financial plan that goes beyond just investment management—including retirement income planning, Social Security optimization, tax strategy, and more.
Q: I'm retiring soon in Gilbert—should I be worried about this market volatility?
A: Market volatility in the years immediately before and after retirement is something to take seriously, but worry isn't productive—having a plan is. This period is when you're most vulnerable to sequence-of-returns risk, meaning poor market performance early in retirement can significantly impact your long-term financial security. If you're within 2-3 years of retirement and haven't stress-tested your plan against market downturns, now is the time to do so. Consider questions like: Is your asset allocation appropriate for your timeline? Do you have enough cash reserves to avoid selling stocks in a down market? Are you maximizing Social Security timing? Do you have a tax-efficient withdrawal strategy? These are the conversations we have every day with pre-retirees in Gilbert, Chandler, and across the East Valley. If you'd like a second opinion on your retirement readiness, we offer complimentary consultations to review your situation and discuss whether your current plan accounts for market risk.
Still Have Questions?
Market volatility and investment strategies can be complex. If you'd like to discuss how tactical investing or other risk management approaches might fit into your retirement plan, we're here to help.
Schedule a complimentary consultation with J. Martin Wealth Management:
Serving Chandler, Gilbert, Maricopa, and Gold Canyon.
Disclosure: This FAQ is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The HCM-BuyLine® is a proprietary indicator and does not guarantee investment results. All investing involves risk, including potential loss of principal. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor to discuss your specific situation.
The HCM-BuyLine® is a proprietary indicator and does not guarantee investment results or prevent losses. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal.
Ready to Learn More?
Schedule a complimentary consultation to explore how the HCM-BuyLine® and other tactical strategies may fit into your overall investment plan.
Who is Vance Howard?
Vance Howard embarked on his professional career in the financial industry in 1992, establishing Chartered Financial Services, Inc. He subsequently founded Howard Capital Management, Inc. in 1999, a fee-only Registered Investment Advisor. Mr. Howard brings expertise in the analysis, creation, and execution of diverse trading strategies.
Prior to his focus on financial services, Mr. Howard founded Delta Waste Services in 1988, a waste management company he later sold in 1992. Additionally, he co-published investment-focused newsletters, "The Savvy Investor" and the "SI Intermediate-term Trader", which garnered an international readership across over 25 countries between 1992-1999.
Demonstrating a commitment to community, Vance has served on the Huntsville, Texas city council for four terms, including two terms as mayor pro tem. His civic involvement extends to roles such as Huntsville's City Finance Chairman, Chairman of the Huntsville/Walker County 911 Emergency Service, and board positions on the Houston/Galveston Economic Development Council and the District 910 Legal Grievance Committee. He is a former President and active member of the Huntsville Rotary Club.
Outside of the professional sphere, Vance collaborates with family members in the operation of the Bar C Ranch in Madisonville, Texas, where they specialize in raising registered longhorn cattle. His leisure interests include travel with his wife and children, cycling, kayaking, scuba diving, and hiking.
“We aim to take emotion completely out of the equation. Trading with emotions, in our opinion, ruins long-term returns.”
— VANCE HOWARD, CEO + PORTFOLIO MANAGER
Disclosure:
Howard Capital Management, Inc issues this communication. It is for informational purposes and is not an official confirmation of terms. It is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, nor is it a complete statement of the financial products or markets referred to. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Howard Capital Management, Inc. may maintain long or short positions in the financial instruments referred to and transact as principal or agent. Unless explicitly stated otherwise, this is not a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to buy or sell, and any prices or quotations contained herein are indicative only. To the extent permitted by law, Howard Capital Management, Inc. does not accept any liability arising from using this communication. Howard Capital Management is an SEC-registered investment advisor that only does business where it is properly registered or is otherwise exempt from registration. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor indicates that the advisor has attained a particular skill or ability. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This newsletter is a publication of Howard Capital Management, Inc. It should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed, nor should the newsletter be construed as personalized investment advice. All expressions of opinion reflect the author's judgment as of the publication date and are subject to change. It should not be viewed as legal or tax advice. Always consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your legal or tax situation. There can be no guarantee that the HCM-BuyLine® indicator will perform as anticipated. Stop-loss protection will not necessarily limit your losses to the desired amounts due to the limitations of the HCM-BuyLine®, market conditions, and delays in executing orders. It is not an actual stop-loss order that automatically sells securities in the portfolio at a certain price.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material above has been provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as legal or investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security or strategy. The investment strategy and themes discussed herein may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial situation. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, though its accuracy is not guaranteed, and J. Martin Wealth Management makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information, which should not be used as the basis of any investment decision. Information contained on third-party websites that J. Martin Wealth Management may link to are not reviewed in their entirety for accuracy, and J. Martin Wealth Management assumes no liability for the information contained on these websites. Opinions expressed in this commentary reflect subjective judgments of the author based on conditions at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form or referred to in any other publication without express written permission from J. Martin Wealth Management. For more information about J. Martin Wealth Management, including our Form ADV brochures, please visit https://adviserinfo.sec.gov or contact us at 480-630-6177.
