Howard Capital Management & HCM-BuyLine® Strategies for Arizona Retirees
Tailored Investment Solutions from Howard Capital Management and J. Martin Wealth
Located in Roswell, Georgia, Howard Capital Management (HCM) is an SEC-Registered Investment Advisor Firm. They aim to deliver professional money management solutions to individuals seeking growth while maintaining a prudent investment approach. The firm offers the use of the HCM-BuyLine®, developed by Vance Howard, CEO and Portfolio Manager at Howard Capital Management Inc., which has been their cornerstone since 1996. This rules-based indicator is designed to provide timely guidance during market volatility. The HCM-BuyLine® is designed to seek reduced downside exposure by signaling shifts from equities to cash and cash equivalents, while identifying opportunities to increase equity exposure during market upswings. It does not guarantee results and does not prevent losses.
J. Martin Wealth, based in Arizona, provides fiduciary financial advice tailored to help you meet your financial goals. Led by Jeff Martin, our team focuses on personalized investment strategies that align with your risk tolerance, time horizon, and unique objectives. Whether planning for retirement, managing your investments, or seeking comprehensive financial guidance, we are here to provide solutions that put your best interests first. Serving clients in Gilbert, Chandler, Maricopa, and throughout Arizona, we are committed to delivering transparent, client-centered service.
At J. Martin Wealth Management, serving retirees across Gilbert, Chandler, Gold Canyon and Maricopa, we share these weekly insights to help you understand market movements and how they may impact your retirement plan.
The following commentary was authored by Vance Howard, CEO of Howard Capital Management, Inc., as of the date noted. It reflects his personal views and does not represent the views or recommendations of J. Martin Wealth Management or Tucker Asset Management LLC. References to specific index levels reflect HCM’s internal strategy and are not personalized investment advice for any reader of this page. Past performance of the HCM Buy-Line® is not indicative of future results.
Howard Capital Management - Global Weekly Summary
September 18, 2026: Middle East Tensions Unsettle Global Markets
September 18, 2026
Weekly Market Movers — Key Highlights
- The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points and signaled additional tightening ahead.
- New Zealand GDP and South African retail sales exceeded expectations, indicating pockets of economic resilience.
- Brent crude climbed above US$108/bbl following attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and escalating Red Sea disruptions.
Global equity markets fell during the week as Brent crude surged above US$108 per barrel following attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and heightened disruption risks across the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The capture of strategic territory by Houthi forces further intensified concerns over global trade routes, energy security and inflationary pressures. While energy stocks benefited from rising oil prices, broader equity markets struggled amid fears that higher input costs could undermine economic growth and corporate profitability.
In the United States, equities also declined as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, marking its first increase in more than three years and signaling further policy tightening to address persistent inflation. Stronger-than-expected retail sales data highlighted continued consumer resilience but reinforced expectations of restrictive monetary policy. Geopolitical developments remained prominent, with U.S. officials engaging in talks with Houthi representatives in Oman and the U.S. administration proposing a US$2.8 billion military aid package for Israel.
Global Updates
- The MSCI All Country World Index posted broad-based declines during the week, amid intensifying Middle East tensions, disruptions to energy infrastructure, and renewed uncertainty over the economic impact of higher commodity prices.
- New Zealand’s economy expanded 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, outperforming forecasts of 0.1% growth, although activity slowed markedly from the 0.8% increase recorded in Q1 as Middle East tensions weighed on business and consumer confidence.
- South Africa’s retail sales rose 3.4% year-on-year in July, up from a revised 1.1% increase in June, indicating stronger consumer spending and improved activity across the country’s retail sector.
- SB Energy, a data-center developer backed by SoftBank Group, will sell up to US$500 million in shares to Japanese investors as part of its U.S. listing plans, with proceeds earmarked for data-center development, power generation, and related infrastructure projects.
- Huawei announced it will introduce two new artificial-intelligence chips in 2027, the 960DT and Ascend 960PR, as part of its efforts to strengthen its AI-computing business.
- Saudi East-West Pipeline Shutdown following a drone attack raised concerns over global energy supply security, pressuring broader equities.
- Escalation of Red Sea and Middle East supply disruptions pushed Brent crude above $108/bbl, intensifying inflation concerns and weighing on global risk assets.
- Houthi forces seized strategic territory overlooking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, dealing Saudi Arabia a major setback in Yemen and raising concerns over maritime security and Iran’s growing regional influence.
U.S. Equity
- U.S. equity markets edged lower as the Federal Reserve delivered its first rate hike in over three years and signaled further tightening, while rising Treasury yields, elevated oil prices and escalating Middle East tensions weighed on investor sentiment, offsetting gains in energy stocks.
- The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, citing persistent inflationary pressures and signaling further policy tightening ahead.
- U.S. retail sales rebounded 1.2% in August, with spending increasing across most categories and core retail sales posting their strongest gain since September 2024.
- Eli Lilly announced its oral obesity drug captured over 30% of new U.S. patients, narrowing Novo Nordisk’s market lead.
- Accenture agreed to a US$25 million settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice to resolve allegations concerning its diversity and inclusion practices.
- Abbott Laboratories agreed to a settlement exceeding US$384 million to resolve allegations involving contamination risks in infant formula production.
- British Prime Minister Andy Burnham is expected to hold his first meeting with United States President Donald Trump next week on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.
- The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation approved a US$500 million trade-finance facility, partnering with the International Finance Corporation to help U.S. companies expand trade and investment activities across emerging markets in South America, Southeast Asia, and Africa.
- The Trump administration plans to provide Israel with a US$2.8 billion munitions package.
Fixed Income
- The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index edged higher over the week.
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.959%, and the yield on the 2-year note rose slightly to 4.688% over the week.
- The U.S. Dollar Index rose to 100.31 over the week.
- Global equities declined amid heightened geopolitical and inflation concerns.
- Brent crude surged as Middle East tensions disrupted energy markets.
- Strong U.S. inflation data raised expectations for further monetary tightening.
- AI and semiconductor stocks outperformed, led by Intel and Qualcomm.
Global equity markets declined over the week as risk sentiment weakened across both developed and emerging markets amid heightened geopolitical tensions, rising bond yields, and continued uncertainty surrounding the global interest-rate outlook. Strength in artificial intelligence, semiconductor, and communications infrastructure-related stocks provided some support, but these gains were largely outweighed by broader concerns over slowing global growth, elevated energy prices, and persistent geopolitical risks. Rising crude oil prices and strains in sovereign debt markets further dampened investor sentiment, prompting a shift toward defensive positioning and weighing on economically sensitive sectors, including technology and consumer discretionary.
Geopolitical developments remained a key driver of market performance. Escalating hostilities between Iran and the United States, along with continued disruptions to critical shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz and growing influence of Iran-aligned forces around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, intensified concerns over global trade and energy supplies. Higher oil prices renewed inflation concerns and added to market volatility, while ongoing strategic tensions between the U.S. and China, divisions among BRICS nations, and the continuing Russia-Ukraine conflict contributed to a cautious investment backdrop. Trade frictions between the United States and Canada also added to uncertainty, reinforcing a risk-off tone across global markets.
Global Updates
- The MSCI All Country World Index declined over the week as a sharp rise in oil prices heightened inflation concerns, prompting investors to reassess expectations for further monetary tightening by major central banks.
- The IMF said the global economy has remained resilient despite the Middle East energy shock, projecting around 3% growth in 2026 while warning of elevated risks.
- The UK economy expanded by 0.4% in July, surpassing expectations, as economists had anticipated no monthly growth following June’s unchanged GDP reading.
- French energy major TotalEnergies reported a new oil discovery in Angola and agreed to acquire a 40% operated stake in two exploration blocks. The Acacia-5 discovery is expected to increase Block 17 output by 6,000 barrels per day, with production targeted within months.
- Chinese AI chipmaker Shanghai Enflame Technology surged around 200% on its Shanghai debut after raising 6.12 billion yuan in its IPO, significantly outperforming broader Chinese equities.
- Indian electric motorcycle maker Ultraviolette Automotive plans to invest ₹7.79 billion in a new manufacturing facility, targeting mass-market expansion amid rising electric two-wheeler demand.
- Iran-backed Houthi forces captured Yemen’s port city of Mocha and advanced towards strategic Red Sea islands, strengthening their position around the vital Bab el-Mandeb shipping corridor.
- India will host the BRICS summit in New Delhi this weekend amid divisions over the Iran conflict, which has disrupted the Strait of Hormuz oil flows and lifted crude prices.
- A Ukrainian drone strike killed two people in Russia’s Tula region, while Russian air attacks injured eight in Kyiv, highlighting the conflict’s continued impact on civilians.
- Ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz declined to seven transits on Thursday from 11 a day earlier, remaining below the 10-day average of 15.
- Canada announced a C$350 million aid package for Ukraine to procure air defense interceptors, as Kyiv faces mounting pressure from intensified Russian missile attacks.
U.S. Equity
- U.S. equity markets ended the volatile week lower, as investors grew increasingly cautious amid rising Treasury yields, elevated oil prices, and persistent inflation concerns. Growth-oriented technology shares came under pressure as higher interest-rate expectations weighed on valuations, while markets also digested stronger-than-expected producer inflation data and awaited key consumer inflation figures ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting. The risk-off tone contributed to four consecutive days of losses for major U.S. indices, reflecting investor concerns that inflationary pressures could keep monetary policy restrictive for longer.
- The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.4% in August, tracking at an annualized rate of 5.4% to keep wholesale core inflation significantly above the central bank’s target.
- The escalating U.S.-Iran conflict intensified supply disruption concerns, driving crude oil prices higher and weighing on broader risk sentiment over the week. Tensions in the Middle East forced global Brent crude oil prices to surge past the $ 107-per-barrel mark.
- Investors reacted to stronger-than-expected August Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which reinforced concerns that inflation pressures will likely remain elevated. Markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike ahead of the September policy meeting as inflation and energy prices continue to rise.
- The White House announced new restrictions on selected Canadian imports and expanded tariff measures, escalating trade tensions between the United States and Canada. Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on $20 billion of American goods also took effect, escalating the cross-border trade friction following the restrictive trade proclamations from the White House.
- Novartis’ stock price dragged following late-stage clinical trial setbacks for its cardiovascular treatment pelacarsen and its muscular dystrophy drug del-desiran.
- Intel shares rose during the week after reports indicated the company plans to increase prices on its central processing units (CPUs) by approximately 10% beginning in October, signaling stronger pricing power and efforts to improve profitability. Investor sentiment toward the semiconductor sector was supported by expectations that the price increase could bolster Intel’s revenue outlook amid ongoing demand for advanced computing and AI-related technologies.
- Corning’s stock rallied during the week after the company secured a multibillion-dollar supply agreement with Verizon Communications to provide high-density optical fiber solutions through 2032. The long-term contract strengthened investor confidence in Corning’s growth.
- Qualcomm shares gained after the company announced a partnership with Amazon Web Services focused on building artificial intelligence data center infrastructure and optical connectivity solutions.
- The Department of Commerce took minority equity stakes in quantum computing companies D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti Computing, and Quantinuum in exchange for $100 million each in CHIPS Act funding.
- The U.S. Treasury Department tripled its longer-dated bond buyback operation to $6 billion during the week, a move aimed at improving market liquidity and addressing strains in the Treasury market that had contributed to distortions in the yield curve.
Fixed Income
- The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index declined sharply over the week.
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose sharply to 4.942%, and the yield on the 2-year note rose to 4.556%, due to the rise in oil prices and rising concerns regarding rate uncertainty and government debt over the week.
- The U.S. Dollar Index declined slightly to 99.10 over the week.
Chart data below reflects market conditions as of the date shown. It is provided for illustrative purposes in connection with the commentary above and does not represent current market conditions. It should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.
HCM Wealth Watch: From the Desk of Vance Howard
Skynet, Oil Spikes, and Rate Hikes: Cue the Year-End Rally?
Posted By: Vance Howard - September 14, 2026
The market has pulled back with news that AI could get out of control, rising oil prices, and the likelihood that the Fed will raise rates this week. Three negatives combined to put downward pressure on investors. However, we believe the market is reaching oversold conditions, so we hope to find an area of support soon. In other words, we see this as a buying opportunity.
This is nothing new on AI, but I think the bigger eye-opener is a bit different than most, including myself, thought. Many people thought that it would cause massive unemployment, which as time passes, does not look to be the case. Their fears, as we are learning, are more along the lines of AI taking over the codes for nuclear weapons, cyber-attacks, shutting down the electrical grid, and the list goes on. The talk over the weekend was about governments around the world who need to step in and build guardrails, so to speak. We will save everyone the suspense; governments will not step in until it blows up in everyone’s face. So, if you do not have some form of risk management system like the HCM-BuyLine®, for Heaven’s sake get one!
Oil prices have jumped, and several refiners, including Phillips 66 (PSX) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC), now look overbought and somewhat parabolic. Given the strength across the broader energy sector, we are looking to lock in profits in some of our energy holdings.
On the buy side, CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) appears to be breaking out, and we believe it looks like they are ready to move higher. Shopify Inc. (SHOP) has pulled back to its 100 DMA and is building up momentum.
The new Fed Chair Warsh, in his last statement, has indicated a rate hike is in the cards this week, so we expect a quarter point rise in rates at the next Fed meeting.
But let’s close on a very optimistic note:
- In the past 10 sessions, as all will know, oil has risen more than 20% while U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond yields have risen more than 30 basis points. A rare circumstance.
- Bond yields rising along with oil have caused a short-term drop, or a period of volatility, which corrected itself in 2 to 3 months followed by a very nice rally in stocks.
- This has happened 12 times since 1983. Every single completed episode produced a positive SPX return at +12 months, ranging from +13.6% to +28.4%.
All that to say, we are looking for the market to be somewhat sloppy with a strong year-end rally.
The securities shown were selected by Howard Capital Management and do not represent all securities bought, sold, or recommended. HCM may hold positions in the securities shown. Charts are provided for illustration only and are not a recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The HCM-BuyLine® Explained
Curious how the HCM-BuyLine® works—and whether it fits your investment strategy?
The HCM-BuyLine® is a proprietary, rules-based investment tool designed to help manage portfolio risk by using market momentum indicators. Instead of relying on emotional decision-making, the BuyLine® uses quantitative data to signal when to reduce equity exposure and when to re-enter the market. It is designed to reduce equity exposure during certain downturns and increase exposure when conditions improve; it does not prevent losses.
For investors seeking an alternative to traditional buy-and-hold strategies, the HCM-BuyLine® offers a more dynamic, tactical investment approach. Its methodology is intended for use during periods of volatility or economic uncertainty. you looking for an investment philosophy that adapts to changing market conditions?
At J. Martin Wealth, we believe in aligning your financial plan with tools that are built to adapt. The HCM-BuyLine® is one example of how data-driven investing can support long-term goals while seeking to manage downside risk.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is the HCM-BuyLine and how does it work?
A: The HCM-BuyLine® is a systematic, rules-based investment indicator developed by Vance Howard at Howard Capital Management. It uses quantitative market data to signal when to reduce equity exposure during downturns and when to increase exposure during uptrends. Rather than relying on emotion or guesswork, the BuyLine® follows predetermined criteria to help manage portfolio risk. Think of it as a disciplined framework for deciding when to be more defensive (holding cash) or more aggressive (holding stocks) based on current market conditions. It is designed to reduce equity exposure during certain market declines and increase exposure when conditions improve; it does not prevent losses.
Q: Is tactical investing right for retirees?
A: Tactical investing strategies can be suitable for certain retirees, particularly those concerned about sequence-of-returns risk—the danger of large losses early in retirement. For retirees who are drawing income from their portfolio, reducing exposure to large losses may be especially important, since there may be less time to recover. However, tactical strategies are not right for everyone. They involve more active management than traditional buy-and-hold approaches, and past performance does not guarantee future results. The best fit depends on your individual risk tolerance, time horizon, income needs, and overall financial plan. We recommend discussing tactical strategies with a fiduciary advisor who can evaluate whether they align with your specific retirement goals.
Q: How is this different from what most financial advisors in Chandler or Gilbert offer?
A: J. Martin Wealth Management offers tactical strategies, such as those available through Howard Capital Management, as one option among several. Whether a tactical or more passive approach is appropriate depends on an individual client’s goals, risk tolerance, time horizon, and financial circumstances. We recommend discussing any strategy with a fiduciary adviser to evaluate suitability. The HCM-BuyLine® approach is tactical, meaning it attempts to reduce equity exposure during unfavorable market conditions and increase exposure when conditions improve. This doesn't make one approach "better" than the other—they serve different objectives. Buy-and-hold is simpler and is often used by investors with very long time horizons. Tactical strategies like HCM aim to reduce volatility and manage downside risk, which can be especially important for retirees who can't afford to wait years for a portfolio to recover. At J. Martin Wealth Management, we believe in matching the strategy to the client, not forcing every client into the same approach.
Q: Does the HCM-BuyLine® guarantee that I won't lose money in a downturn?
A: No. The HCM-BuyLine® is an investment tool designed to help manage risk, but it does not eliminate risk or guarantee results. All investing involves the potential for loss, including loss of principal. Tactical strategies attempt to reduce exposure during declines, but market conditions can change rapidly, and there may be delays in executing portfolio adjustments. Additionally, moving to cash during downturns means you might miss some recovery gains if the market rebounds quickly. There are trade-offs with any investment approach. The HCM-BuyLine® has been used since 1996, but past performance is not indicative of future results. It's a tool, not a guarantee, and should be evaluated as part of a comprehensive financial plan.
Q: Can I invest with Howard Capital Management directly, or do I need to work through J. Martin Wealth Management?
A: Howard Capital Management is an institutional investment manager based in Roswell, Georgia, and they primarily work with financial advisors rather than directly with individual investors. At J. Martin Wealth Management, we have access to Howard Capital Management strategies as one of several investment approaches we can incorporate into client portfolios. We serve as your fiduciary advisor, building a comprehensive financial plan tailored to your situation, and when appropriate, we may recommend tactical strategies like those offered by Howard Capital Management. Working with us means you get personalized advice, local service in Chandler and Gilbert, and a financial plan that goes beyond just investment management—including retirement income planning, Social Security optimization, tax strategy, and more.
Q: I'm retiring soon in Gilbert—should I be worried about this market volatility?
A: Market volatility in the years immediately before and after retirement is something to take seriously, but worry isn't productive—having a plan is. This period is when you're most vulnerable to sequence-of-returns risk, meaning poor market performance early in retirement can significantly impact your long-term financial security. If you're within 2-3 years of retirement and haven't stress-tested your plan against market downturns, now is the time to do so. Consider questions like: Is your asset allocation appropriate for your timeline? Do you have enough cash reserves to avoid selling stocks in a down market? Are you maximizing Social Security timing? Do you have a tax-efficient withdrawal strategy? These are the conversations we have every day with pre-retirees in Gilbert, Chandler, and across the East Valley. If you'd like a second opinion on your retirement readiness, we offer complimentary consultations to review your situation and discuss whether your current plan accounts for market risk.
Still Have Questions?
Market volatility and investment strategies can be complex. If you'd like to discuss how tactical investing or other risk management approaches might fit into your retirement plan, we're here to help.
Schedule a complimentary consultation with J. Martin Wealth Management:
Serving Chandler, Gilbert, Maricopa, and Gold Canyon.
Disclosure: This FAQ is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The HCM-BuyLine® is a proprietary indicator and does not guarantee investment results. All investing involves risk, including potential loss of principal. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor to discuss your specific situation.
The HCM-BuyLine® is a proprietary indicator and does not guarantee investment results or prevent losses. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal.
Ready to Learn More?
Schedule a complimentary consultation to explore how the HCM-BuyLine® and other tactical strategies may fit into your overall investment plan.
Who is Vance Howard?
Vance Howard embarked on his professional career in the financial industry in 1992, establishing Chartered Financial Services, Inc. He subsequently founded Howard Capital Management, Inc. in 1999, a fee-only Registered Investment Advisor. Mr. Howard brings expertise in the analysis, creation, and execution of diverse trading strategies.
Prior to his focus on financial services, Mr. Howard founded Delta Waste Services in 1988, a waste management company he later sold in 1992. Additionally, he co-published investment-focused newsletters, "The Savvy Investor" and the "SI Intermediate-term Trader", which garnered an international readership across over 25 countries between 1992-1999.
Demonstrating a commitment to community, Vance has served on the Huntsville, Texas city council for four terms, including two terms as mayor pro tem. His civic involvement extends to roles such as Huntsville's City Finance Chairman, Chairman of the Huntsville/Walker County 911 Emergency Service, and board positions on the Houston/Galveston Economic Development Council and the District 910 Legal Grievance Committee. He is a former President and active member of the Huntsville Rotary Club.
Outside of the professional sphere, Vance collaborates with family members in the operation of the Bar C Ranch in Madisonville, Texas, where they specialize in raising registered longhorn cattle. His leisure interests include travel with his wife and children, cycling, kayaking, scuba diving, and hiking.
“We aim to take emotion completely out of the equation. Trading with emotions, in our opinion, ruins long-term returns.”
— VANCE HOWARD, CEO + PORTFOLIO MANAGER
Disclosure:
Howard Capital Management, Inc issues this communication. It is for informational purposes and is not an official confirmation of terms. It is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, nor is it a complete statement of the financial products or markets referred to. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Howard Capital Management, Inc. may maintain long or short positions in the financial instruments referred to and transact as principal or agent. Unless explicitly stated otherwise, this is not a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to buy or sell, and any prices or quotations contained herein are indicative only. To the extent permitted by law, Howard Capital Management, Inc. does not accept any liability arising from using this communication. Howard Capital Management is an SEC-registered investment advisor that only does business where it is properly registered or is otherwise exempt from registration. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor indicates that the advisor has attained a particular skill or ability. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This newsletter is a publication of Howard Capital Management, Inc. It should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed, nor should the newsletter be construed as personalized investment advice. All expressions of opinion reflect the author's judgment as of the publication date and are subject to change. It should not be viewed as legal or tax advice. Always consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your legal or tax situation. There can be no guarantee that the HCM-BuyLine® indicator will perform as anticipated. Stop-loss protection will not necessarily limit your losses to the desired amounts due to the limitations of the HCM-BuyLine®, market conditions, and delays in executing orders. It is not an actual stop-loss order that automatically sells securities in the portfolio at a certain price.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material above has been provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as legal or investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security or strategy. The investment strategy and themes discussed herein may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial situation. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, though its accuracy is not guaranteed, and J. Martin Wealth Management makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information, which should not be used as the basis of any investment decision. Information contained on third-party websites that J. Martin Wealth Management may link to are not reviewed in their entirety for accuracy, and J. Martin Wealth Management assumes no liability for the information contained on these websites. Opinions expressed in this commentary reflect subjective judgments of the author based on conditions at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form or referred to in any other publication without express written permission from J. Martin Wealth Management. For more information about Tucker Asset Management LLC, including its Form ADV brochure, please visit https://adviserinfo.sec.gov or contact us at 480-630-6177.
